Scriptwriting: Exploring Socio-Political Future:
Prime Minister Jose De Venecia.... 10 Percent?

Imagine time as if it is a big pond. Then suddenly, a child throws a stone in the middle of it. The impact of the stone as it hits the pond will produce ripples. These ripples are circular patterns that escalate as the energy caused by the impact is distributed.

What if we mark all the points in the different ripples. And from the center, we draw several lines connecting the inner ripple to the outer ripple. What we have are several lines moving in several directions, anchored in one single point of origin. The point of origin is the initial event caused by the child who threw the stone. The several points in the ripples connected by several lines are the possible futures of the said initial event. Now, it is up to the writer to choose which possible future is most likely to come true. How do we do this?

An average person will instantly say that in order to understand the future, one must explore the past. Yes, partly this is true but one must consider the volatility of human development. Meaning, raw information provided by the present as it moves towards the past, if not systematically studied, would often mislead us in making flimsy conclusions. That is why, it is vital that we study information within the parameters of a model.

Models, by definition, are abstract---verbal, mathematical or diagrammatic descriptions of imitations of reality. Sad to say, this will be a very long discussion if we will touch on the different types of models. It is so taxing, believe me. That is why I hate it whenever I tackle this approach. It forces you to study the types of models until you reach your breaking point. So forgive me if I will only discuss one type.

Verbal models are blueprints that predict socio-political futures by capitalizing on the principle of cause and effect. For example, some developmental models suggest that modernization require centralization of power. While others argue that development may take place either in reconciliation systems or mobilization systems. Meaning, the socio-political future within the relationship of man and society is subject to the effects caused by the relationship of political and economic factors.

The People's Initiative is dead and the SSS is going to increase the pensions of its members by 10 percent. These are unrelated events. The former is political and the latter is economic. But somehow, if we employ a verbal model, one can draw a connection between the two. Let us try.

One of the arguments of the People's Initiative, as sponsored by Speaker of the House Jose De Venecia, is that the present system of governance is slowing down the economic development of the country. But two weeks after the death of the initiative, the SSS posted a high rate of return on its investment. As a result, it is able to increase the pensions of its members by 10 percent. This negates the premise that the old system is slowing down the economy. The relationship between these two events sends signals to politicians that the "no election" scenario will remain as a scenario. Eroding the momentum of the people's initiative in its desire to change the system of governance.

Right now, politicians are gearing up for the 2007 elections, further pumping up the economy with election related investments. Investments that they seek to protect by maintaining the old system that feeds the vicious cycle of patronage politics. In other words, as a socio-political future, Jose De Venecia's dream of becoming the prime minister in 2007 won't happen. A future predicted by a SSS pensioner as he jumps for joy 10 percent more than the previous year.

The study of socio-political future is useless without a model. The model is the compass that guides the writer through the countless possible futures offered within the parameters that define the relationship of man and society. Again, among the approaches, I really dislike this one. But it does not mean that I do not respect it. In fact, writers who write speeches for politicians should be familiar with this approach. 75 percent of the time, political and economic speeches are all about socio-political futures. These are prescriptions that are often developmental in orientation that sponsor a set of conditions that in their perception will enact development and modernization.

Love it or hate it., this approach kicks ass. Predicting the future is definitely a must have for political pundits and columnists. But for writers like us, knowing the potential future helps us tell a compelling and exciting story. Especially when fiction becomes reality.